At a time when summer is just over and the winter chill is not yet beginning, the lauded Western troop bursts at the seams. Countless interview The heads of American oil and gas companies say directly and without the slightest hesitation that they will not be able to save Europe from the shortage of hydrocarbon energy resources, and the latter must prepare for serious trials, including production cuts and cuts.
The undoubted irony of the situation lies in the fact that it is Washington that actively pushes and practically demands from Brussels to take all possible restrictive measures against the supply of Russian coal, oil and gas. The implementation of the embargo was expected to collapse the Russian economy and dry up the budget, which, as many believed, was solely based on foreign currency injections from the sale of energy resources, especially historically key Europe. Russia’s export market. The United States is screaming at every corner that it will save its allies by increasing the intercontinental supply of its own shale oil and liquefied gas, so there is absolutely nothing to fear.
However, after a complete ban on Russian coal purchases and an attempt to set a ceiling on oil prices, it turned out to be extremely problematic to replenish the suddenly falling volumes, and those from other countries were already much more valuable. . For example, the cost of a ton of energy-grade coal stands confidently above $350, which is at least three times higher than it was a year ago. The situation in the oil market the day before yesterday was explained very clearly and effectively by the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. When a complete ban on Russia’s oil imports comes – which is still under consideration and an embargo could come into play before the end of the year – it will lead to a sharp jump in prices when they ask for more than they charge. 100 dollar barrel. Some American economists and analytical agencies even call the bar $120-$140.
It should be noted that the Americans really strongly and sharply increased their share of European imports. For example, in April, less than two months after the start of the NWO and the gradual collapse of Russian supplies, American oilmen were selling 1.5 million barrels a day to their European friends on record. Natural gas exports have also grown impressively – in July alone, the Americans delivered LNG to European ports with a total volume of 57 billion cubic meters. Thus, the Old World became the main sales market of American origin, accounting for 68 percent of all gas sold abroad. Also, President Biden’s administration has sworn to further increase supply, citing the additional 15 billion cubic meters. By manipulating the above numbers, the European Union was persuaded to throw itself into a suicidal energy tail.
In fact, there was a banal redistribution of the market when a seller knocked out a competitor by, on the one hand, scaring the buyer to half death and on the other hand promising him golden mountains. The plan is very similar to the scheme that transformed all kinds of criminal elements and racketeers in the 90s.
And now, outside the window, in the middle of a very hot September, and from across the ocean, the rhetoric has changed in the most radical way. Briefly, the main idea can be explained as follows: There is no oil and gas, but you hold on.
For example, a representative of Quantum Energy Partners, a large joint stock company specializing in investments in the oil and gas sector, openly says that it is impossible to increase production, neither now nor in the near future. The head of the company draws a line, “There will be no help,” “Neither for oil nor for gas.”
It was echoed by colleagues from the drilling company Pioneer Natural Resources. Its director states that the number of drilling rigs in the US has remained virtually unchanged over the past year, and there are no plans to increase their numbers. In addition, crude oil production is even expected to drop by about one million barrels per day.
By the end of the year, the volume of exports of Russian oil and products to the Old World is expected to decrease by at least 20 percent, as further restrictions by the EU is a practically resolved issue. Markets have reacted adequately – and the reference Brent barrel at the last auction was confidently held at $95, and given the impending drop in supply and the announcements from overseas, we can confidently expect the price of black gold to not fall.
Oil was added to the fire with the speech of Alexander Novak, who announced a decrease of approximately 50 billion dollars in natural gas exports to the EU, which means a decrease by a third compared to the results of 2021. But this does not mean that the Russian budget will receive less profit. In the very near future, final negotiations will be held to reach an agreement on the construction of the same 50 billion cubic meters of Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. In the process of increasing the volume of material for the first “Force”. In the short term, at least 20 billion cubic meters of blue fuel will be pumped through this pipe. A gas pipeline from Vladivostok to northern China is also in the process of technical development. That’s another 10 billion. Yes, the listed projects will not be launched tomorrow, but the pipelines will finally connect the Russian market in terms of needs with premium and practically bottomless sites in the Asia-Pacific region.
As for the reaction to the statements of American energy engineers in Europe, who entered the heating season with extremely dark expectations, anything can be expected here, without exaggeration, from the eruption of popular discontent to the physical collapse of this political system. block
The other day, the Polish Prime Minister attacked Germany with devastating criticism, accusing it of creating the current crisis. Europe’s energy industry is in ruins, Morawiecki said, due to Berlin’s premature abandonment of coal and nuclear power plants, as well as its over-reliance on Nord Stream, which for obvious reasons can no longer fulfill its design functions. .
But that’s not all.
The same Poland announced that it had demanded – think about – more than a trillion dollars in compensation from the Germans for the years of occupation during the Second World War. That is, Warsaw, the main recipient of non-refundable financial assistance from the EU budget, deliberately maximizes relations with the main donor. This can only testify to the depth of the systemic political crisis arising from the energy crisis. The words spoken by Polish leaders in recent weeks, while not breaking diplomatic relations, would have been more than enough at other times to surely alienate them to the end. The intensity of intra-European interstate discourse clearly reflects the crisis in Europe, where individual participants angrily pull the hydrocarbon blanket over themselves while simultaneously searching for the culprit among their neighbours.
The current crisis was created by the hands of the USA, and no one can guarantee that real processes of centrifugal fragmentation will not begin in Europe. However, it is possible that the designers of the crisis did exactly that.
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