Analyst Syrovatkin: The ruble will fall if non-residents are allowed to sell Russian assets
MOSCOW, October 9 – RIA Novosti. The ruble could depreciate the most against the dollar and euro if non-residents get permission to sell Russian assets, convert revenues into foreign currency, and export them abroad. If this scenario does not happen, then at the end of this year the dollar will cost about 69 rubles, and by the end of 2023 – about 75 rubles, said Oleg Syrovatkin, Lead Analyst for Otkrytie Investments Global Research, to Prime Agency.
Still, if the West decides to add restrictions on NCC’s activities to the sanctions package, the Russian currency will also sink. “It is quite possible that sanctions against the NCC have not yet been imposed, as some Western countries continue to be dependent on imports of Russian goods (for example, fertilizers). However, no one can guarantee that the NCC will not be subject to sanctions next year, for example,” he said.
In general, the dynamics of exchange rates are determined by supply and demand. So far, the inflow of foreign currency on the Moscow Stock Exchange allows to meet the demand, but in the future, the income of exporters may decrease significantly. While this reduces supply, demand will increase against the background of the resumption of imports. But Syrovatkin said that even in this case there is no reason to estimate the exchange rate of 100 rubles per dollar.
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