Analysts expect the Russian economy’s decline in 2023 to slow to 2.5%

MOSCOW, January 3 – RIA Novosti. According to a consensus forecast compiled by RIA Novosti based on a survey of analysts, the Russian economy will continue to contract in 2023, but the rate of decline will slow to 2.5% from 2.8% last year.

In the spring, after the introduction of multiple sanctions against the Russian Federation, both Russian departments and international organizations gave more pessimistic forecasts for the economy than each other. The Ministry of Economic Development in Russia’s GDP last year (as in the 2009 crisis year) 7.8%, the Bank of Russia – 8-10%, and some market analysts called values ​​​​over 10%. . By the summer, the forecasts began to be revised and significantly improved in the fall.

According to the latest official estimates, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the Russian economy to shrink by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023. At the same time, the Central Bank of Russia predicted a 3-3.5 percent decline in GDP at the end of last year and 1-4% this year. At the same time, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in December that the decline in GDP in 2022 will be 2.7% and a “slight minus” is projected in 2023.

reasons for the decline

Experts say that the main potential constraints for the Russian economy in the coming year will be foreign trade due to oil sanctions and growing problems in other countries, as well as a shortage in the labor market.

Anton Pavlov, Vice Chairman of Absolut Bank, believes that the problems experienced in the global economy in 2023 may adversely affect the Russian economy. “Currently, more than 70 countries, both in Europe and on other continents, are facing record inflation, an energy shortage that will affect the growth of the world economy. Despite measures to develop with domestic resources, the global recession continues to put pressure on our economy,” he said.

The intensification of negative trends in the Russian economy in the short term will contribute to the slowdown in developed countries, the difficult situation in the Chinese economy, the decline in the average oil price, and the scarcity of skilled labor in the labor market. Uralsib” Aleksey Devyatov, the bank’s chief economist, warns of further imposition of the already adopted anti-Russian sanctions.

Expert, “We expect the most difficult situation in our country’s economy to be observed in the first half of 2023. However, we expect quarterly GDP growth rates to return to positive values ​​by the end of next year.” concluded.

Analyst forecasts

Analysts’ projections for the decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022 and 2023 are presented below (as a percentage):

Absolute Base – (-3.2) / (-4-5)

ACRA – (-3) / (-1-1.5)

BCS Investment World – (-3) / (-2,5)

Gazprombank – (-3.1) / (-3.8)

Zenith – (-3) / (-3.4)

NKR – (-2.5-2.7) / (-3)

SberCIB Investment Research – (-2,8) / (-1)

Sovcombank – (-2-3) / (-1.2)

Uralsib – (-2.9) / (-3.9)

“Home loan” – (-2-2.3) / (-1-1.5)

“Expert RA” – (-2.5) / (-1.5-2)