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Post: Delayed effect: what will happen to the ruble after the New Year


MOSCOW, January 3 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinskaya. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, the Russian currency held up well last year. Having survived a strong stress, the ruble has greatly strengthened. And although it decreased slightly in December, no significant fluctuation is expected.

I found the balance

In the spring, the ruble fell to 120 per dollar. However, the coordinated measures of monetary authorities – key currency maneuvers, currency interventions, trading halts and restrictions on the foreign exchange market – have almost doubled.

True, at the end of the year, the ruble weakened slightly to 72.6 due to low oil prices and increased foreign exchange demand. However, as emphasized by the Central Bank, the exchange rate remained in the band at the end of May.

basic knowledge

Fontvielle Investment Company Investment Advisor Maxim Fedorov said that the relative stability of the ruble is associated with a significant reduction in the factors affecting its value. The most important thing right now is the country’s trade balance and this figure is positive.

In the January-November period, exports exceeded imports by $269.8 billion. This is 1.9 times more than a year ago. The foreign trade surplus made the exchange rate 60-65 against the dollar.

According to the estimation of the Central Bank of Russia, exports will decrease by 7.5-11.5 percent – 114 billion dollars in 2023, while imports will increase by 15 billion dollars.

This, of course, will affect the national currency. But not all at once

“There is a lagging effect, so the ruble will consolidate at 63-65 for the dollar and 66-69 for the euro for now,” predicts Roman Chechushkov, head of investment analytics at Renaissance Credit Bank.

According to Renaissance Credit forecasts, it will reach $65-70 levels by summer. The euro will be affected by the industrial crisis in Europe, so we can expect about the same or even slightly less (64-69) here.

According to Fontvielle analysts, the ruble will feel the deterioration in key macroeconomic indicators already in the first quarter: it will move to 70 per dollar and 75 per euro.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts an annual average rate of 68.3 in its September report. This is based on an average Ural oil price of $70.1 per barrel (above the ceiling), a 0.8% drop in GDP, and a trade surplus of $225.7 billion. In 2024, 70.9 is expected, in 2025 – 72.2.

“GDP could shrink further due to sanctions, a ban on oil shipping by sea, a price ceiling and a possible gas and LNG supply embargo. The Urals are currently worth around $55, which will affect budget revenues and weaken the ruble,” he warned. Chechushkov.

Support factors

On December 16, the Bank of Russia did not change the main rate – 7.5%.

By assessing the current dynamics and taking into account the traditional rise in the stock market game at the beginning of the year for the decline, the rate will drop from 62-64 for the dollar and 66-68 for the euro to 65-67 and 67. -69, respectively, recommends Mikhail Khachaturyan, Associate Professor in the Department of Management and Innovation at the Finance University under the Russian government. At the same time, according to him, the ninth package of sanctions against Russia is unlikely to have a strong effect, and most likely, by the end of February, the ruble will return to its original value.

“Stable demand for Russian energy supplies from Asian countries and China, and from African, Latin and South American countries for fertilizers and agricultural products sold in rubles and national currencies will help,” the analyst said.

Sberbank believes that in January the ruble will rise to 65 per dollar. This will be facilitated by a gradual recovery in prices and physical volumes of oil exports, as well as an increase in foreign exchange sales by exporters in the market. A pessimistic scenario: at the end of the year it will remain as 70.

no sudden movements

Therefore, most experts include lateral dynamics in the forecast – no sharp fluctuations or slight weakening no higher than 75 per dollar. Experts are confident that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will follow suit.

“Decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis. Since the movement of capital is limited, the exchange rate is not completely free,” explains Georgy Vashchenko, deputy director of the analytics department at Freedom Finance Global.

The state is no longer interested in strengthening or sharply weakening the ruble, so the baseline scenario is a horizontal trend.

Source: Ria

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