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Post: Analyst estimated Gazprom’s minimum exports since the 1980s


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Analyst Timonin: Gazprom exports in 2023 could be the lowest since the 1980s

MOSCOW, January 4 – RIA Novosti. Ivan Timonin, consultant to Vygon Consulting, told RIA Novosti that Gazprom’s exports to non-CIS countries this year may reach the lowest level since the 1980s.

“Given the declining deliveries on key export routes to Europe in 2023, we can expect exports to fall further to around 60 billion cubic meters. Thus, a new historical low can be reached – such figures were last observed in the 1980s,” noted the analyst.

Timonin stated that the volume of this gas export from the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries in 2000 was 130 billion cubic meters and has been on an upward trend for about 20 years, although there have been decreases in some years since then. The maximum mark was reached in 2018, when the volume of these deliveries to distant European countries exceeded 200 billion cubic meters.

But last year, many European countries completely or partially lost their largest gas supplier, Gazprom. In the spring, it reduced or stopped deliveries to Bulgargaz in Bulgaria, PGNiG in Poland, Gasum in Finland, Gas Terra in the Netherlands, Shell Energy Europe in Germany and Orsted in Denmark. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on payment in rubles or other technical reasons.

Then, at the beginning of summer, deliveries along the main route Nord Stream were significantly reduced, as the German Siemens was unable to return the required unit to Russia after repair due to Canadian sanctions. Full operation of gas pipelines became impossible due to difficulties in maintenance, and in the autumn supply along the route stopped.

After Russia’s counter-sanctions against the operator of the Polish division, pumping along the stabilizing Belarusian route “Yamal-Europe” also stopped and was significantly reduced, as Ukraine stopped receiving part of the transit along the Ukrainian transit. As a result, Russian pipeline gas is now supplied to Europe via one of the two entry points to Ukraine’s gas transport system and Turkey, where it comes via Turkish Stream and Blue Stream.

Source: Ria

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