MOSCOW, January 6 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinskaya. The separation of foreign concerns, the shortage of cars, the increase in prices, the problems of spare parts – the past year has been difficult for the Russian car market. Now the structure of trade is changing: Chinese brands have sharply increased their share. RIA Novosti understood how the situation with new and used cars will develop, whether prices will rise again and what are the prospects for domestic manufacturers.
According to the European Business Association (AEB), sales of new and light commercial vehicles have fallen by almost 60 percent in three quarters. Only Lada (20 percent) and Chinese car brands popular in Russia were added.
Despite falling demand, prices increased by an average of 20 percent. One of the most important factors is the increasing cost of logistics services. Customs procedures are currently going through Belarus and Kazakhstan, but it is still impossible to predict what will happen to the logistics centers in the new year. “The liability of third parties violating sanctions will be tightened,” he said. tuning studio Larte Design.
Another reason is that there is no car. Due to the departure of foreign manufacturers, there was a shortage of one million cars in the market. Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov is confident that there will be no prerequisites for a price reduction unless it is compensated by alternative models.
So the price goes up again. “Europeans” and “Japanese” – because of logistics and payment, and the Chinese will take advantage of the situation: now their cars are sold on the Russian market more successfully than in China itself.
Lada and the Chinese
The aggressive growth of Chinese manufacturers is the most striking trend of 2022. They have occupied almost 30 percent of the market and will cross the 40 percent mark this year according to VTB Leasing.
The Russians will give priority to the budget segment of the domestic auto industry, mainly Lada, and Chinese cars – Chery, Haval, Geely.
AvtoVAZ plans to introduce Lada Vesta and Niva models, which are less dependent on imported components, to the market in the coming months. “The Sino-French crossover hybrid Moskvich is planned to rival the Hyundai Creta. Domestic manufacturers should be supported by higher import duties on new and used cars and the expansion of preferential car loans and leasing programs.”
But AvtoVAZ still has problems in its supply chains, especially microcircuits. Therefore, the price increase may be higher than the overall market and may be 10-15 percent. Also, Chernov explains that the demand for Russian models has increased due to affordable maintenance and component prices.
The Chinese will also bring new brands to the market: Chery Arizzo, Ora Lightning Cat, Tank sedans. Experts do not exclude the emergence of sub-brands for the Russian market, such as Chery Omoda.
As noted in the AvtoSpetsTsentr Group of Companies, sales of some Chinese cars may increase due to government concession lending programs. For example, since September 2022, Haval Jolion has participated in government programs for the purchase of First and Family cars.
However, according to Andrey Olkhovsky, managing director of Avtodom Group of Companies, ultimately consumers will not want to pay so much for a Chinese car and will start repurchasing European cars supplied by parallel imports.
Parallel imports and “exotics”
The offer is gradually replenished with parallel imports – these are products of European, Korean and American companies. However, import volumes are still small and also very expensive.
Transport logistics has become more complex, transport costs have increased, which directly affects the price of cars.
“You can buy almost any brand through parallel import. The question is how many cars, and most importantly, how much such a car will cost. Prices for budget models can come quite close to the premium segment,” believes Dmitry Polunin.
“Some exotic models appeared, such as the Chevrolet Tracker and Groove, the Volkswagen ID.6 electric car and the Volkswagen Bora sedan. Instead of some models, others began to be imported: Mitsubishi Outlander – Mitsubishi Xpander, Hyundai Creta – Hyundai Bayon , Toyota RAV4 – Toyota Rush. However, there are also Disadvantages: increased cost and assembly features, for example, cars from the UAE and Pakistan are not adapted for our winter,” explains Anton Kravtsov, a specialist in the Finmir market.
Asians knocking on the door
Besides manufacturers from China, other companies are striving to enter the Russian market. Among them is Iran Khodro. From 2006 to 2009, this manufacturer has already tried to sell cars in Russia, but due to low demand, it curtailed the business. Now the second attempt. It was announced in August that the Iranian Khodro Tara model will start deliveries from the beginning of 2023. According to the Parts Manufacturers Association, Iran and Russia signed a memorandum on automobile exports worth $300 million.
Indian automaker Tata, which owns Nexon and Harrier crossovers, is also eyeing the Russian market. Other contenders are Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra, chassis SUVs based on technical solutions from SsangYong, previously purchased by the Indians.
“Also, the Iranian company Saipa recently announced its intention to supply the Shahin sedan and the Quik crossover. The cost of these cars can be one million and 0.5 million rubles, respectively, which makes the Iranians rivals of Russian manufacturers,” Chernov said. outside.
VTB Leasing does not yet see great prospects for the Indian and Iranian automobile industry in the Russian market: the demand for these products is unlikely to reach economically justified volumes.
Used cars and loans
With the shortage of new cars, the demand for used cars has increased – this is another of the trends of the last year. At the same time, the number of advertisements for the sale of liquids – not older than three years – and the most popular Lada, Ford, Toyota, Renault, Volkswagen in the secondary market is decreasing.
“The average cost of used cars is also increasing: by December it increased by 35 percent to 880 thousand rubles. Despite this, sales increased by five percent compared to October and by 15 percent in our company,” said Denis Migal. The SEO of the automotive market is Fresh Auto. According to him, the interest in such cars will continue, since the supply of new ones directly through the channels will still be impossible, except for the variants of the eastern countries.
Experts predict used cars will make up the bulk of auto loans – their share now exceeding 50 percent. According to VTB, auto loans of 676 billion rubles will be issued according to the results of 2022. However, lending indicators did not return to 2021 values and fell ten percent behind 2020, according to NBKI.
“In the context of a recession in the economy caused by geopolitical uncertainty, we can expect a stagnation in auto loan demand in at least the first half of the year and a slight increase in the indicator in the second half. The economy is stabilizing,” predicts Yaroslav Bajurak, commercial director of the Vyberu.ru financial market.
what about spare parts
The cost of original spare parts has increased by about 70-75 percent since the beginning of 2022 due to disruption of supply chains. For the same reason, the price of non-genuine components rose more than 100 percent by mid-year. Prices have dropped a bit now.
In the autumn, dealers and car services reported that due to the threat of sanctions, the lack of windshields, body parts, engines and consumables (oil and fuel filters), as well as electronic components through parallel import into Russia is impossible. Now it’s a little easier: companies supplied via Turkey, China and the UAE. But there are problems with spare parts – especially in the premium segment.
“We note the lack of components, as well as increased prices for Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche. For example, Mercedes windshields sell for 300-500 thousand rubles,” says Denis Migal.
In the future, the cost of spare parts will directly depend on the exchange rate of the ruble, the volume of delivery and the recommended retail prices of manufacturers.
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