Kolobanov: Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries may fall by 30 percent
MOSCOW, January 16 – RIA Novosti. Sergei Kolobanov, deputy director of the Fuel and Energy Complex Economy Center, said that Russia’s pipeline gas supply to countries outside the CIS could fall by 30 percent to 70 billion cubic meters in 2023. A comment to RIA Novosti.
Gazprom’s exports to non-CIS countries in 2022 amounted to 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 45.5% (84.2 billion cubic meters) lower than in 2021. Deliveries to Europe last year, the main route – Nord Stream – and the balancing route – Yamal – were stopped across Europe, decreased threefold through Ukraine’s gas transport system, but increased in the Asian direction – along the Power of Siberia – to China. Now Russian pipeline gas is supplied to Europe via one of the two entry points to Ukraine’s gas transport system and Turkey, where it comes via Turkish Stream and Blue Stream.
“Total pipe gas exports to non-CIS countries in 2023 cannot exceed 70 billion cubic meters,” Kolobanov calculated.
The expert points out that the relevant customs statistics have not been published since the beginning of the special military operation in the Russian Federation. However, according to estimates calculated on the basis of “mirror” data from other countries, pipe gas exports from Russia to Europe in 2022 amounted to about 64 billion cubic meters, to Turkey – 13 billion cubic meters, to China – 16 billion cubic meters. cubic meters, according to the analyst.
The interlocutor of the agency believes that the supply of Russian pipeline gas to Europe is unlikely to exceed 30 billion cubic meters in 2023 – and this is subject to the preservation of the existing transit through Ukraine and some increase in the burden on existing capacities. Turkish Stream. Kolobanov believes that it is not worth relying on the restoration of Nord Stream or the launch of one of the branches of Nord Stream 2 this year, primarily for political reasons.
The capacity of Blue Stream, which supplies gas to Turkey for domestic consumption, has been used by about 80% in 2022 and this will increase even more, even if the maximum load is expected to be reached in 2023 (as in 2021). He added that no more than 16 billion cubic meters of gas can be exported to Turkey. According to the analyst, about 23-24 billion cubic meters can be sent to China.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the end of last year that the key point in Russia’s gas supply is the Asian side. He noted that the supply diversification will be realized mainly through LNG and pipeline supply to China. Gazprom head Alexei Miller said that global gas consumption is expected to increase by 20 percent in the next 20 years, while the increase in consumption in China will provide 40 percent of the world’s growth.
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