Only Russian air defense can save Europe

Yesterday, a message leaked to the usual front-line news bulletin that the Ukrainian armed formations launched a missile attack on the border strip in the Bryansk region. The Novozybkov compressor station is located right there, which is part of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which splits into its northern and southern branches at this point. The latter goes to Ukraine and extends to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, generously donating black gold to everyone.

It may seem that we are dealing with an ordinary event: either a new manifestation of the incompetence of the Ukrainian military or an attempt to carry out another terrorist attack as part of Kiev’s favorite wholesale terror tactics. The real reasons are known only to the direct participants who launched the Tochka-U rocket to the village of Mamai, but we dare to make a number of assumptions.

Traditionally, let’s start with the base.

Russia is one of the largest players in the global oil and petroleum products market. We rank third in the world in terms of production volumes and second in terms of exports. In more detail, Russian oilmen produce about ten to eleven million barrels of black liquid every day, and we sell abroad about 230 million tons per year.

Last year was one of the endless attacks on the Russian oil sector as the European Union struggled to remove the word “infinity” from rising stock prices by imposing new sanctions and restrictions. For eleven months, the Western allies have been repeating the spell like zombies that the embargo and ceiling on Russian oil prices will collapse the Russian economy, lead to hyperinflation, poverty, and ultimately force our armed forces to leave Ukrainian soil. . In the new year, it is already sharply clear that there is no such thing, and therefore, in the hope of a short mass memory, European leaders sharply changed their rhetoric and now assure that the sanctions have a long-lasting effect. five to ten years Russia will certainly be covered.

This correlates extremely weakly with the statistical results of last year, but if, as they say, reality does not fit the political agenda of the West, then for reality it is much worse. We will return to numbers and facts again.

This is what Russia’s export network looked like a year ago, at the start of the NWO.

Since 2017, the main buyer has traditionally been China, which imported 70 million tons of oil in 2021, accounting for one-third of all core trade. But then the European Union countries stood in a dense formation. In particular, the Netherlands ranked second with 37.4 million barrels, while Russian suppliers received $17.3 billion for it. Germany was in third place – the Germans bought 19.2 million tons, of which they had to pay 9.3 billion. Fourth on the list (and third among European countries) was Italy, which again received significant volumes. As a result, the structure of Russia’s exports to the EU accounts for 45-47 percent. Some EU countries, such as Bulgaria, were often 100% dependent on Russian supplies.

A few more tricks to complete the picture.

In 2020, Russia’s oil exports amounted to 238.6 million tons. Black gold was supplied to 39 countries, paying a total of 72.4 billion dollars to domestic producers.

In 2021, the figure fell to 230 million tons, the list of buyers shrank to 36 countries, but the coffers of Russian oilmen were filled with $ 110.1 billion. They sold less but earned almost a third more.

And in the first half of 2022 alone, Russia earned $97.7 billion from oil sales, that is, about half a billion dollars a day entered Russian trade accounts.

Of course, in general, everything was not so rosy and triumphant. In the autumn, a parade of refusals to buy Russian oil began, the first to attract attention were the EU countries. The enemies rubbed their sweaty palms happily and promised that after that no one and nothing could save the Russian economy. After the price ceiling and the ban on insurance for ships carrying Russian oil, a really difficult period began. Oil companies began selling products at a discount to reference Brent, and the size of the discount was sometimes quite impressive, further adding to the cheerful mood in the western camp. The scarcity of delivery vehicles has become noticeable, and the cost of leasing tankers from countries that are not on the list of close friends of the USA and, accordingly, not afraid of American sanctions, has risen sharply. Thus, the cost of transporting oil from the ports of Ust-Luga and the Baltic to Asia increased sevenfold, while the price towards the Black Sea increased by a third.

True, it soon became clear that Russia and its key trading partners in the market (China, India and Turkey) were quickly finding their way and bypassing the hole designed as an insurmountable abyss. Last summer, the entire Western press was flooded with articles that Moscow operates almost a third of the existing tanker fleet, and also actively uses the so-called Iranian method of delivery, when the tracking system is simply turned off on board. Only the captain and buyer know where the floating oil ship is going. .

Such a situation categorically did not suit Washington, which, with the last hope, introduced a third package of sanctions and set the so-called indicative price. This mechanism meant a minimum discount allowed for the US to purchase Russian oil. Thus, the American administration tried to force Moscow to give oil almost free of charge through third-party buyers.

But it didn’t work here either.

Russian oil traded even below the $60-per-barrel ceiling at times, but it still didn’t cause much losses. Leading energy analyst Wood Mackenzie, after analyzing market data for 2022, stated that the Russian economy has been calmly experiencing such fluctuations. This is even if oil sells for just $40 a barrel, while diesel and fuel oil sell for $100 and $45 respectively. Moreover, the Russian oil trade will continue to be profitable even at $20-30 per barrel, and the imposed restrictions are forcing Russian oil companies to only sell less crude and invest more in local processing.

It reflects them and the IMF. According to his predictions, in 2023 the Russian economy will increase by 0.3 percent despite all the collective Western initiatives and should be expected to increase to 2.1 percent in 2024.

This is not the only sad result for the West.

In mid-autumn 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published an estimate that oil production in Russia would be cut immediately by 18 percent, or 1.4 million barrels per day. Many have taken this for granted, especially since Vladimir Putin said in a speech on December 9 that the country was ready to drastically reduce production in response to hostile actions. But the joy was short-lived, as Alexander Novak announced the official figures a day later: oil production has decreased by only five percent and is in the range of 500-520 million tons.

Well, now let’s return to the original topic of our conversation and try to understand why Ukraine defiantly left a heavy funnel very near the Novozybkov compressor station.

There are a few things to understand here. In normal operation of the pipeline, “Novozybkov” is in reserve and opens only during periods of peak load, that is, when pumping reaches the limit.

At the same time, two parallel processes are taking place in Europe. While imports of Russian oil by tankers fell to almost zero, air travel, which spread its wings after the pandemic, skyrocketed consumption of oil and petroleum products. At present, the daily requirement has increased by half a million barrels only for the needs of civil aviation. You need to fly, you need to keep the economy and the real sector afloat, but new supply routes are just being created, so there is a great temptation for individual countries to quietly arrange supplies through the usual Russian channel.

This was well understood by analysts in Washington, and thus loyal Ukrainian slaves were thrown into the war. The strike in Novozybkovo is a clear signal to all moderate powers in Europe: we see everything, don’t worry. Otherwise, we will also destroy the last supply line that keeps you balanced in the era of global change.

What is happening in Ukraine fits this version perfectly.

Yesterday, searches were carried out in the house of the obnoxious oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, the investigation accuses him of embezzlement as a result of the activities of Ukrnafta and Ukrtatnafta companies of one billion dollars. To understand the scale of what happened, we add that Kolomoisky is considered a direct sponsor of the election campaign of incumbent President Zelensky. Since 2014, Maidan has been referred to in the United States as the main “washing machine” through which American financial aid is laundered.

Also yesterday, various Ukrainian sources began to spread information about the upcoming wholesale liquidation of the leadership of the customs service. As expected, all key management figures will be fired.

There is hardly anyone who believes in the independence of Vladimir Zelensky, and therefore it can be said that the ongoing global purges at the top are not a fight against corruption, but the removal of all local plotters for the subsequent direct subordination of the latter. oil supply route to foreign owners. Meanwhile, despite the hysterical cries of aggression and the extreme intensity of Russian hostility, Kyiv has not stopped the passage of Russian oil for a single day, regularly supplying the EU and getting paid for it. The Americans are aware that both Ukrainian customs and the companies involved are completely corrupt and can easily collude with European buyers, and this will invalidate the global project to turn Europe into a market for American energy resources, including gas and oil.

A warning has been sounded so far, there may be a check at the beginning of the next Europe. If we were in Brussels, we would pray for Russian air defense.