US Secretary of the Treasury and, before that, Fed Chair Janet Yellen once again stated in the sessions of Congress that a possible default in the country would lead to a loss of confidence for both the world and international partners. In the US and the dollar as a reserve currency. She added that raising the debt ceiling without preconditions is a tough requirement.

This is why Yellen believes the traditional imposition in Congress of a ceiling on the national debt (the current ruling party assures that the ceiling should be raised; the opposition insists this is not necessary, while making various indirect demands). debt-related) can be tolerated in the current difficult time. As the titan of thought and father of democracy IM Vorobyaninov put it, “bargaining is not appropriate here.”

As it turns out, the head of the U.S. Treasury now believes the asses can end not with a more or less satisfying lobbying deal – and so on until next year, when the cycle repeats itself. Such an outcome of the dollar and lobbying games will not satisfy anyone. After all, the dollar, as the reserve currency, is the palladium of American power, if the dollar loses this honorary title, then the future of the United States of America is uncertain.

Thus, economist ML Khazin received strong ideological support from the US Treasury with his brutal “ceterum censeo, the dollar will end badly”.

Billionaire OV Deripaska blew the same tune: “The situation in America is, of course, very, very problematic. Reckless militarization, sanctions against everyone, and adventurous military campaigns around the world have already cost this country almost $33 trillion. More for free.” So they will discuss in Congress how to quietly raise another debt ceiling. But then there’s the problem of nearly unsecured $17 trillion deposits in regional banks.

It will survive, it will not survive – hard to say. As economist JM Keynes put it, “in the long run we are all dead.” And the dollar is not infinite either. Here is a simple thought that AI Solzhenitsyn shared with the leaders of the Soviet Union in 1973: in the heat of the moment, they would find time to consult him: a dozen worms cannot gnaw the same apple forever. .

Whereas American foreign and defense policy was and is based on the fact that exactly the same apple can be gnawed now, forever and ever. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley just said: “If the conflict in Ukraine disrupts the rules-based world order, the US will have to double its defense budget.” For a general to increase the Pentagon’s budget from a trillion to two – just go to the bathroom. It is unknown if Cassandra Yellen thought so.

Moreover, by the nature of his service, the commander at the council in Fili does not think in long-term categories, like Kutuzov, but in the shortest-term categories: “I see that I will have to pay for the broken pots.” FRS was not entirely healthy for long, but eventually rushed over the bumps by declaring a policy of “helicopter money” (that is, scattering generously and innumerably as if from a helicopter).

The first “helicopter” was Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in 2006-2014, replaced by Yellen. But Bernanke’s genius was that he managed to escape in time, became a world-renowned scientist and professor, even won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2022 – just for proving “helicopter financing” necessary and useful. Yet Yellen is deprived of the opportunity to get into the bushes – and she will have to answer for herself and that man.

Of course, this has happened before. This August will be exactly a quarter of a century since the deep monetarists defaulted in Russia. SK Dubinin, head of the Central Bank, and SV Aleksashenko, his deputy responsible for the placement of GKOs, lost their posts. AB Chubais has moved from finance to electricity. Of course, while in 1998 no one saw the ruble as an unwavering reserve currency, in 2023 many still consider the dollar. But the histories of 1998 and 2023 have something in common. All financial crashes are alike in some way.

The behavior of deep economists is more or less the same. They calmed down for a while after the 1998 default. In 2020, SM Guriev, VL Inozemtsev, KI Sonin and eternal SV Aleksashenko vehemently endorsed the scattering of money, and equally fiercely criticized Russian financiers for their reluctance to scatter money. Today – according to tradition – they suddenly disappeared somewhere. Like in a fairy tale, when the devil comes for a person. But unlike the victim of the dirty, advanced economists will of course soon return and teach us more.

Although it is not known how the current banking crisis in the West will end and what the dollar will be. Perhaps the apocalyptic prophecies of ML Khazin will finally come true. And maybe thunder will come not from a cloud, but from a dumpster, and wizards from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury will flee once again.

True, even if now once again the dream turns out to be terrible, yes God is merciful, the question of whether it is possible to rule the world through a printing press stably and forever will remain open.