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Post: Sberbank analysts expect the ruble to strengthen against the dollar by the end of the year


Dollar sign in one of the exchange offices in Moscow. archive photo

Sberbank analysts expect the ruble to strengthen by 75 rubles against the dollar by the end of the year.

MOSCOW, April 20 – RIA Novosti. By the end of the second quarter, the dollar may cost about 80 rubles, in the third quarter it will drop to 78 rubles, and by the end of the year to 75 rubles, followed by the presentation and speech of the senior director – director of the analytical department of Sberbank Natalia Zagvozdina.

“Due to a very noticeable drop in Russia’s export volume, operating ceilings for oil and petroleum products, but we also see a discount in March and April where Russian oil is sold against the United States. external benchmark Brent is shrinking, we think the ruble has a chance to strengthen to 75 (ruble – ed.) against the dollar by the end of the year, and even in the third quarter our forecast is 78 (ruble – ed.) “, at the conference “Time for Change: New industry challenges and development prospects” said.

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As can be seen from the presentation, analysts of Sberbank say that at the end of the second quarter the dollar is 80 rubles, at the end of the third quarter the US currency is 78 rubles, at the end of the year – 75 rubles.

Zagvozdina noted that now the foreign exchange market “is not what we are used to, because there are almost no foreigners on it, we have restrictions on capital movement”, its liquidity has decreased.

“But some one-time things, for example, permission from a large non-resident to exit their assets, maybe Sakhalin Energy (Sakhalin Energy LLC – ed.), maybe Heineken, maybe someone else here who needs to sell rubles and get foreign currency to withdraw with the permission of the government commission – all this is affecting this huge volatility in such a constricted forex market so nobody can cancel it but the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank seem to understand that it needs to be regulated somehow. We should probably wait for these big legal entities – non-residents – to impose restrictions on buying foreign currency for withdrawal, this and falsely it will help the market calm down somewhere”.

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In early April, the Cabinet approved the sale of 27.5% of Sakhalin Energy LLC’s shares to Novatek for 94.8 billion rubles. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last summer on the implementation of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector. Accordingly, the operator of the Sakhalin-2 project, the joint venture Sakhalin Energy, was replaced by a new Russian legal entity LLC Sakhalin Energy. Foreign shareholders had to apply for a stake in the LLC within a month. Mitsui and Mitsubishi agreed to the change of authority and retained their shares. Shell, which accounts for 27.5%, refused to participate in the plan and wiped out the book value of its stock – $1.6 billion.

By presidential decree, the government should sell Shell’s stake and transfer money to the “C” type account, deducting the amount of damage Shell allegedly caused to the project. The government’s estimate of 94.8 billion rubles for the foreign company’s stake in Sakhalin-2 is comparable to Shell’s own estimate.

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Source: Ria

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