Osadchy: The price of Russian Ural oil will be about $65 per barrel by the end of 2024
MOSCOW, December 10 – RIA Novosti. By the end of next year, Russian Ural oil will cost about $ 65 per barrel, and the price difference with Brent will be about $ 10, this opinion was expressed to RIA Novosti by the head of the analytical department of BKF bank Maxim Osadchiy.
“Based on futures quotes on the ICE exchange, we can conclude that the expected price of Brent oil in the market will be approximately $ 75 per barrel by the end of next year. The difference between Brent and Ural prices is decreasing, we can expect this.” It will be around $10 per barrel by the end of next year, the analyst said. “Accordingly, the expected price of the Urals at the end of next year is approximately 65 dollars per barrel,” he believes.
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According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Ural oil, for which oil taxes are calculated, was $72.84 per barrel in November.
Osadchy also gave a forecast for the ruble exchange rate for next year. “With fairly high confidence, we can expect the level of 100 rubles per dollar to be broken again in 2024. It is unlikely to reach the level of 200 rubles per dollar next year,” the analyst said.
In general, according to him, the ruble exchange rate is stabilizing: the fluctuation range (difference between the maximum and minimum) during the year has decreased by more than half: if in 2022 the fluctuation range was 69 rubles per dollar, then in 2023 – 34 rubles Osadchiy said that “stability in the ruble “We can assume that it will continue in 2024. It is also more likely that the weakening trend of the ruble will continue next year,” he added.
At the end of October, the Central Bank of Russia removed the forecast for the average price of Ural oil from its medium-term forecast, instead included the forecast for Brent oil in the document and expects this forecast to increase by the end of the current year. an average of $83 per barrel. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts that next year the Brent price will average 80 dollars per barrel.
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