Analyst Syrovatkin allowed the Russian currency to fall to 85 rubles per dollar
MOSCOW, July 28 – RIA Novosti. Considering a 20% drop in oil production in Russia and a drop in exports by a third or more by the end of the year, the dollar could cost 77-85 rubles. If it is possible to find an alternative market for oil, the weakening of the ruble will be less pronounced, said Oleg Syrovatkin, Lead Analyst of Otkritie Investments’ Global Research Department, to Prime Agency.
The fate of the ruble exchange rate largely depends on other decisions of the Central Bank of Russia on the exchange rate. “The updated forecast for the average annual level of the key rate allows for a reduction to 6.5 percent by the end of 2022, and this level may already be enough to reduce speculative demand for the Russian currency,” Syrovatkin said. Said.
He suggested that the recent weakening of the ruble was due to the sharp increase in trading in the yuan/ruble pair, whose volume has exceeded the trading volume in the euro/ruble pair in recent days. It is not yet possible to say exactly who bought the yuan for the ruble, but the Central Bank has previously mentioned the possibility of foreign exchange intervention with a floating exchange rate under the budget rule. The expert concluded that the future will depend on the speed of implementation of the budget rule, the dynamics of exports and imports and the policy of the Central Bank.
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