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Post: Greenpeace study: Oil embargo will be manageable


Germany wants to be as independent as possible from Russian oil and gas. According to a study by Greenpeace, the consequences of an oil embargo would be manageable.

An oil embargo against Russia would be manageable for Germany, according to a study commissioned by the environmental organization Greenpeace. Its impact on oil prices will likely be limited and an embargo will also be effective and affect Russia. These are the results of the study by energy expert Steffen Bukold.

Germany wants to halve oil imports from Russia by mid-2022

The federal government has so far opposed the cessation of deliveries of Russian oil and gas. Oil and gas deliveries toured together 60 percent of Russia’s export earnings It will be out in 2021. The loss of oil revenues cannot immediately stop the Russian war machine in Ukraine. However, this will severely limit Moscow’s fiscal space in the medium term.

According to the Federal Ministry of Economy at the end of March, Germany’s dependence on Russian oil with contract changes from previously 35 percent now about 25 percent fell.

Russia’s oil imports to Germany are expected to decrease by half by mid-year.

One-third of the imports can be easily replaced

According to research…

  • come two-thirds Germany’s oil imports from Russia road to East Germany via the Druzhba pipeline
  • one third bypass ports to West Germany

The last third can therefore be replaced without any problems. According to the study, there will be major logistical problems in eastern Germany, where the Druzhba pipeline feeds the two refineries in Schwedt and Leuna.

A failure in Russian oil supply refinery operator Germany and Poland face huge problems that cannot be solved without “active operational and political measures”

Study: Refineries in the East will need to be fed through alternative routes

According to the research, in the event of an embargo, tanker oil would have to be purchased on the world market to replace deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline. Water can be supplied to the refineries in the east via alternative routes.

The example of Gazprom Germania shows that the ministry can intervene if the security of energy supply is at risk, the work continues. For example, by federal authorities in the form of state trustees of the refinery in Schwedt.

In addition, refineries remaining in Germany would have to or be forced to expand their catchment area to supply parts of eastern Germany.

According to experts, oil price will rise only in the short term

According to experts, sanctions against Russia in the event of an oil embargo should be designed to be more difficult to circumvent. Frauds such as re-declaring Russian oil mixed with other types of oil should also be sanctioned and monitored.

According to research, it could be a complete embargo in the short run a increase in oil price to lead. However, various reasons suggested that oil prices would soon return to their current levels. Below:

  • generally weakening global oil demand
  • relatively good source of fat
  • strong release of government reserves
  • Solving critical logistics bottlenecks

In Germany, austerity measures such as a general speed limit or the phasing out of heating oil can also have a price-lowering effect.

You can always find the latest news about the Russian attack on Ukraine on our live blog:

Source: ZDF

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