news unrolled

Post: Putin: Autocrat under pressure?

Categories

On Putin’s 70th birthday, Eastern Europe expert Alexander Libman explains how much support the Kremlin ruler still has in Russia and how serious Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons is.


ZDFtoday: What is the current political situation of Vladimir Putin, whose 70th birthday is October 7?

Professor Alexander Libman: This is nothing more than a good political situation for him. He made a big miscalculation with the Ukraine war. Putin, we understand much more clearly now than a year ago, has been overly focused on Ukraine lately. Now, all the target he has set himself here seems to disappear.


  • ZDFtoday: Do we see a Vladimir Putin changed by Russia’s military failures?

    Lebanon: It turned out that Putin was genuinely willing to sacrifice everything to achieve his goals in Ukraine and questioned any support for his power. I’m not talking about sanctions anymore, I’m talking about partial mobilization. It’s an economic disaster for Russia and a disaster for something that has always mattered to Putin: his popular popularity.

    ZDFtoday: If Putin is ready for anything, do you think the use of nuclear weapons is possible?

    Lebanon: Yes unfortunately. Unfortunately I agree with them, Angela Merkel and Joe Biden are the ones who say we should take this very seriously now. It is important to avoid this scenario.

    ZDFtoday: Has the West underestimated Putin’s willingness to risk it to achieve his goals?

    Lebanon: The West thought that there were taboos that Putin would not break. Looking back, we know that these taboos did not exist. For example: You have an extremely unpleasant neighbor who doesn’t like you and sometimes tips the trash can, for example. But you don’t think it will burn your house down. Now clearly:

    This neighbor of Europe is not only unpleasant, but also extremely dangerous.

    Professor Alexander Libman, Institute for Eastern Europe, Freie Universität Berlin

    ZDFtoday: How is it possible for the Russian president to single-handedly make unforeseen decisions such as the use of nuclear weapons?

    Lebanon: We have a precise term in political science for Putin’s regime, a personal dictatorship where everything is ultimately concentrated in one person. In a personal dictatorship, decisions are ultimately made by a human.

    This is how the CIA sees Vladimir Putin’s personality:

    ZDFtoday: The supporter of Russia’s atomic bombing is the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whom Putin appointed as a colonel yesterday. Is it a sign of an upcoming uptrend?

    Lebanon: I don’t think you should overdo it. It’s just a symbol, it doesn’t change anything in Russian politics. This is just a nice present for Kadyrov’s birthday (October 5, editor’s note), if you want. Formerly influential Russian politicians could suddenly wear general uniforms on their birthdays.

    ZDFtoday: Is Putin still in the presidency or is he slowly becoming dangerous to him?

    Lebanon: It seems very strongly that a large part of the Russian bureaucracy is dissatisfied with Putin for various reasons. The problem is that in a system like Putin’s, we have no way of knowing exactly what elites mean and exactly how they want to act. As soon as individual representatives of the elite make their positions public, Putin can act against it. Putin can be sacked tomorrow, that’s possible.

    Putin is definitely weakened, the elite is unhappy. It is impossible to know what this means for their actions.

    Professor Alexander Libman, Institute for Eastern Europe, Freie Universität Berlin

    Interview by Lukas Wagner.

    You can find the latest news about the Russian attack on Ukraine anytime on our live blog:

Latest news about Ukraine


The map of Ukraine shows which areas in the east of the country are occupied by Russian troops.  It also highlights separatist regions and annexed Crimea.


news

|


politics


Ukraine war time lapse

Seven months ago Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied parts of the country. But now Kyiv is taking back its lands. A chronology.


Putin on the map with Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Syria

Story


news

|


politics


Putin’s wars, Putin’s goals

Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine: Russia has already fought in many countries under Putin. There are parallels between the battles – understand the background here.


Ukraine, Donetsk: A Ukrainian soldier stands at the dividing line with pro-Russian rebels in the Donetsk region.  In the Ukraine crisis, the United States and Russia remained in their initially familiar positions at the Geneva talks.

theme


news

|


theme


All about the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Russia is at war with Ukraine. There are numerous Western sanctions against Russia and NATO coordinated arms deliveries to Ukraine. All news and background.

Learn more



Vladimir Putin

interview



Expert on the President of Russia


Putin: Autocrat under pressure?

On Putin’s 70th birthday, Eastern Europe expert Alexander Libman explains how much support the Kremlin ruler still has in Russia and how serious Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons is.

Watch now



Chairman of the Nobel Press Committee


news

|


today at 19.00


Nobel Peace Prize against abuse of power

Belarusian activist Byalyatsky, Russian human rights organization Memorial and Ukraine’s Civil Liberties Center are this year’s winners.

07.10.2022
by Lena Sinnerbruch
video length

play now



Ukrainian soldiers


news

|


today at 19.00


Front report from Ukraine

In Ukraine’s occupied territory, many had to decide: for or against Russia?

07.10.2022
by Katrin Eigendorf
video length

play now



Footer with table of contents

above

Source: ZDF

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *