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Schleswig-Holstein will elect a new parliament tomorrow. Which parties are participating? Who is ahead in the polls? What options can be considered? The facts are briefly summarized.


Political change has been the norm in Schleswig-Holstein for over two decades. In 2000, the then-incumbent coalition, then red-green, was approved in the most recent state election. Prime Minister Daniel Günther has led a stable Jamaican coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP since 2017. A new election will be held on May 8. All that matters for the choice:

Truths:

About 2.3 million eligible voters are allowed to vote. There are 16 parties with state lists. About 300 candidates are running in 35 constituencies. In 2017, the turnout was 64.2 percent.

suffrage:

Two voting systems apply. 35 posts from constituencies are awarded by first ballot. The person with the most votes is elected. The second ballot will be held for a party’s state list, and 34 mandates will be added to this list on a regular basis.

Seat allocation is calculated using the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method. If a party receives more direct power in constituencies than it might have based on second votes, it will retain these multiple seats. Other parties receive compensation according to their shares. A five percent barrier applies.

SSW five percent barrier free

The special case of the Southern Schleswig Voters Association:

As a party of the Danish minority, the Southern Schleswig Voters’ Association is exempt from the five percent clause. However, in order to get at least one post, he must receive the least number of votes. On this basis, the party, which also represents the Frisian minority, has been in parliament since 1958 but with only one member for a long time. From 2012 to 2017, the SSW formed a government with the SPD and the Greens. Along with Anke Spoorendonk, he was Minister of Justice at the time.

initial state:

Politicians from seven parties currently sit in the state parliament. The strongest force in 2017 was the CDU with 32.0 percent, followed by the SPD with 27.3 percent, the Greens with 12.9 percent and the FDP with 11.5 percent. AfD entered parliament for the first time with 5.9 percent; the left five percent missed the barrier. Surviving this, SSW managed 3.3 percent, enough for three buffaloes.

Initially, the five-member AfD parliamentary group broke up as only three MPs remained in the party. A fraction must be at least four. Former AfD head of state Doris von Sayn-Wittgenstein was expelled from the party and parliamentary group. Frank Brodehl left the AfD and later joined the Liberal-Conservative Reformist splinter party.

SPD and Greens want to replace Günther

Employee:

Prime Minister Daniel Günther (48) is chairman of the Northern CDU. In 2017, he headed the first government made up of the CDU, the Greens, and the FDP. The top candidate for the SPD is Thomas Losse-Müller (49), a former Green, economist and banker, former head of state department.

The goal of replacing Günther was also announced by the Greens. The candidate for this is Finance Minister Monika Heinold (63). The FDP’s top candidate, Economy Minister Bernd Buchholz (60), was formerly president of Gruner + Jahr publishing house. AfD sent former group leader Jörg Nobis (46) to the race at number 1 on the list. SSW’s top candidate is longtime MP Lars Harms (57), a Friesian.

election campaign:

After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, high energy and fuel prices and calls for more help played an important role. The spread of renewable energies, especially wind energy, in rural areas – far to the north – is also one of the most important issues. The CDU and FDP are calling for more oil production in the Wadden Sea to reduce dependence on imports from Russia.

For the Greens, this is as difficult as building an LNG terminal for liquefied natural gas in Brunsbüttel: prominent Northern Greens support it, as Federal Minister of Economy Robert Habeck denied at a state party conference. Agricultural policy is also highly contentious in Jamaica between the CDU, FDP and the Greens.

Political barometer: ahead of CDU, SPD and Greens

Surveys:

The latest political barometer places the CDU clearly ahead at 38 percent. Like the Greens, the SPD will be 18 percent. It is followed by FDP (8 percent), AfD (6 percent) and SSW (6 percent). The left, which has not been represented in the state parliament since 2012, is well below the five percent barrier. The high degree of satisfaction with the state government and the very high approval rates for Günther, including supporters from other parties, have long been noticed.

Options:

Various coalitions can be considered. The CDU will likely choose to rule alone with the FDP, but including the Greens say they want to continue to Jamaica. SSW can also be added if it is not sufficient for CDU/FDP. According to polls, an alliance of the CDU and the Greens would be quite possible without the FDP.

This represents a clear preference for the CDU, which would make traffic light much more difficult. For such a calculation will not be enough at the moment. The Greens are entering the elections without a coalition statement. There is no majority in sight for a new coalition of SPD, Greens and SSW.

Source: ZDF

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