An international report warned on Wednesday that the fight for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, 87, could lead to “popular protests, repression and violence and possibly the collapse of the Palestinian Authority”.

The release of the report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group followed a second day of talks that included Abbas and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urging Israel and Palestine to reduce tensions in Ramallah. West Coast.

There is speculation on Palestinian streets about the identity of Abbas’s successor, who led the Palestinian Authority in 2005 for a term that was due to end in 2009.

“unlikely”

The report considers holding “elections in accordance with the legal basis” as the best scenario, but this possibility remains “the least likely”. After the death of Yasser Arafat in late 2004, Abbas headed the Fatah movement and the Palestine Liberation Organization, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and was elected president of the Palestinian Authority in January 2005.

The report says Abbas had “relieved Palestinian institutions and mechanisms of their obligations by allowing them to decide who will replace him”, so “it is unclear who and how this will be done”. Palestinians haven’t gone to the polls since 2005, that is, since Abbas took power.

And after announcing that presidential and legislative elections would be held in 2021, Abbas reversed that decision, justifying Israel’s refusal to hold them in East Jerusalem, which it has occupied since 1967 and which Palestinians consider their capital. its future state.

Analysts attribute Abbas’ move to his fear of diminishing the popularity of Fatah, the movement he leads, and the leadership of Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip. Tensions between the two movements have been high since 2007, after bloody clashes in which Hamas took military control of the Gaza Strip and overthrew Fatah. In recent years, all attempts at reconciliation between the two movements have failed.

possible names

The report points to two Palestinian officials as possible candidates to replace Abbas: the Minister of Civil Affairs and secretary of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hussein al-Sheikh, and the head of the Palestinian Intelligence Service, Majed. Faraj.

While the two men carry a lot of weight in the Palestinian Authority and its ability to work with the international community, the report indicates that they are not popular enough with Palestinians.

The report also mentions Palestinian Football Association President Jibril Rajoub and former head of the Preventive Security Service Mohammed Dahlan, who moved to the Emirates after falling out with Abbas, and Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayeh. The report found that each of them has a “special network of relationships”, but found that none of them “can work alone”.