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Post: “We’re going to hit where we least expect it.” Where will the Ukrainian army advance?


MOSCOW, October 1 – RIA Novosti, Andrey Kots. After the referendums in the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the Ukrainian army intensified the shelling of peaceful cities. At the same time, Kyiv is actively sending reinforcements to the front from the central and western regions of the country. Everything indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces, inspired by the successes in the Kharkov direction, are preparing a new counterattack. About where to wait for the strike – the material is in RIA Novosti.

Get ahead of backups

The fact that Kiev would launch a counterattack was obvious even in the summer. For several months, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with hastily trained and poorly equipped regional defense units drilled holes in the front. While the reserves died under artillery and air strikes, the personnel units were undergoing training and combat coordination away from the Donbass. In addition, the Ukrainian army was actively trained in a number of NATO countries. The attackers in the Kharkov region at the beginning of September were professional soldiers.

As a result of the regrouping, the troops of the allied armies withdrew to the DPR and took defensive positions on the east bank of the Oskol River. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking the grapes, continue to advance. The most difficult part of the front is near Krasny Port in the north of the republic. Capturing this city on the important road Slavyansk-Seversk would allow Kiev to move its forces further east to Lisichansk and Severodonetsk.

“The situation there is extremely difficult,” says a DPR army officer with the call sign Lyuty. “The city is almost surrounded. The enemy is coming from the north, west and south. “According to the latest information, the enemy occupy Drobyshevo and Yampol. Cossacks, soldiers of the LPR’s 2nd Corps and Russian soldiers from the 20th Army are fighting in Krasny Port.”

Soldiers of the 208th Cossack regiment of the LPR People's Militia near the positions on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR - RIA Novosti, 1920, 30.09.2022
Soldiers of the 208th Cossack Regiment of the LPR People’s Militia near positions on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR

The latest offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on this sector of the front was unsuccessful. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, “the losses of the 66th and 93rd mechanized brigades were more than 70 people killed, four tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and three armored vehicles.”

According to the army, the Red Harbor garrison repelled one attack after another. The density of defense orders here is much higher than in the Kharkiv region – it is no longer so easy for the mobile groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in lightly armored vehicles to break into the gaps and seize the bridgeheads for the main forces. However, it does not take into account enemy losses. Clearly, Kyiv is trying to build on its success and reclaim as much territory as possible before the autumn melts and the trained Russian reservists arrive at the front.

Traffic near Donetsk

The situation is getting worse at the borders of the LPR. The official representative of the Republican People’s Militia, Ivan Filiponenko, noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine is accelerating along the entire front line. The cities of Alchevsk, Perevalsk, Kremennaya and Bryanka are regularly bombed. Fire is carried out from the American HIMARS MLRS and artillery mounts of NATO caliber 155 millimeters.

South of Krasny Port, battles continue for Artemovsk. Allied troops are advancing on Zaitsevo and Otradovka. Previously, the assault units of the Russian army settled in the Artemovsk industrial zone, thereby creating a springboard for further operations in the city. The enemy gathered here an impressive group – about ten thousand bayonets. But these units are on the defensive, with no sign of offensive readiness.

At the same time, in the central sector of the front in the DPR, in the Marinka, Svetlodarsk, Krasnogorovka and Opytny region, intelligence captures the accumulation of forces of the Kyiv regime. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repeatedly tried to retake the village of Peski, west of Donetsk – to no avail.

A soldier shows pieces of foreign-made ammunition fired by artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR - RIA Novosti, 1920, 09/30/2022
A fighter shows pieces of foreign-made ammunition fired by artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR

Restless and somewhat south. The DPR believes that the enemy may advance towards Vuhledar. Fresh troops are constantly being transferred there. This threatens the Volnovakha and Donetsk-Mariupol highway.

south facade

Another aspect of the possible counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zaporozhye. According to Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the regional administration, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly conducts exercises and training to capture the ZNPP. According to him, about 450 soldiers of the Special Operations Forces, trained by trainers and advisers from NATO countries for this purpose, arrived in Ukraine. A strike is also possible along the Stepnogorsk-Orekhov-Gulyaipole line on the DPR border in the eastern part of the region.

In the last days it was relatively calm in the direction of Kherson, the front did not move. In early September, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to counterattack, but they hit the fire bags and retreated with heavy losses. After that, Kyiv temporarily abandoned the crossing of the Ingulets River and switched to bombardment tactics with long-range artillery.

However, this does not mean that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is impossible here – the Ukrainian army has proven that it can quickly transfer large groups over long distances. According to experts, Kyiv will order an offensive in the near future. The depletion of NATO’s arsenals also complicates this.

Multiple launch rocket system of the German Armed Forces MARS2 - RIA Novosti, 1920, 30/09/2022
MARS2 multiple launch rocket system of the German Armed Forces

“The American media rightly points out that the annual production of bullets by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the United States is fired within two weeks,” says military expert Ilya Kramnik. “At the peak of summer, this volume was fired within 12 hours. NATO faces a dilemma: either turn the machine all the way or Ukraine will soon have a shortage of equipment and ammunition. Thank God we are not dependent on imports in any way.”

Western countries are verbally prepared to continue supplying arms to Ukraine. In fact, everything is not so smooth. Thus, the United States promised to hand over 18 units of HIMARS MLRS to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as part of the next package of military aid. But, as before, they decided to buy them from the manufacturer and not pull them out of stock. This means that the process will take several years. And it is not a fact that hostilities will not end by then.

Source: Ria

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