“Anselm” Director Kanishchev: The ceiling price of Russian oil can be exceeded
MOSCOW, November 22 – RIA Novosti. The ceiling on the price of Russian oil that the G7 and the European Union want to bring will be very “leaky”, since there are legal possibilities to circumvent the ban on insurance and transportation of oil by more than a hundred, this was the opinion: Maxim Kanishchev, director of the Anselm research center, told RIA Novosti expressed.
“A solution will be found. The G7 delegations are well aware of this, so the ceiling will be full of gaps. The exceptions will be delays in implementation, suspension conditions,” Kanishchev said. said.
According to him, other countries have many legal options to circumvent the ban, for example, oil will be purchased at a ceiling price, and then an additive will be provided to it and additional services for preliminary refueling.
Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that the G7 countries are planning to announce on Wednesday, November 23, at what level the price cap will be set for Russian oil. The US plans to share its proposal privately ahead of the upcoming meeting of EU ambassadors. If the bid is approved, the agreed ceiling price can be announced on the same evening. At the same time, the agency’s interlocutors noted that the timing of this announcement may change.
When asked whether it would be possible to limit the price of Russian oil, Kanishchev noted that a certain ceiling would be officially set, as the G7 no longer had the political opportunity to “pull back”, which countries promised to voters. a lot of time. Another question is whether it will work. The idea of ”price ceiling” is in itself a multiple paradox of double standards,” said the expert.
Kanishchev explained the first paradox when the G7 did not announce that they would not buy Russian oil above the limit. If their price exceeds the ceiling, they will prohibit companies from providing services for the delivery and insurance of oil transportation from the Russian Federation to any part of the world. However, if someone brings them this raw material at a higher price, there will be no restrictions on their purchase. At the same time, this is a new business opportunity for Asian countries – they can develop companies that are not subject to US and European sanctions to transport more expensive oil.
The second paradox is that the USA declares the economy of the Russian Federation to be non-market, but at the same time uses a non-market mechanism to limit the price of goods.
“This is a very dangerous precedent. In the future, if put into practice by analogy, there will be a desire in US jurisprudence to introduce such ceilings for all groups of goods for which the price is not favorable to the buyer: semiconductors from Singapore, bananas from Ecuador or cars from Germany” It’s hard to say what it will lead to, but it’s clear that the consequences for world trade will be disastrous. And in the end, it won’t work.”
Price ceiling from the G7 and the European Union
The analyst states that the five-year average cost of Ural oil is about $65. According to their estimations, this could be the lower level of a possible ceiling. The high-end costs about $100 per barrel. “In total, the average price of the ceiling is $82.5 per barrel, which roughly corresponds to the actual current selling rate, while minimizing the risks of Russian oil going off the market and protecting its political reputation,” Kanishchev said.
In September, the finance ministers of the G7 countries (UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, USA, France and Japan) confirmed their intention to impose price restrictions on Russian oil as part of the expansion of sanctions. In early October, the European Union introduced the eighth package of sanctions against Russia, which includes a legal basis to set a price ceiling for the sea transport of Russian oil to third countries. It is planned to impose a price limit on December 5, 2022 for oil and February 5, 2023 for petroleum products.
Commenting on the West’s idea of limiting the prices of Russian energy resources, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will not make any supplies abroad if it is against its own interests. Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stated that Russia will not supply oil to countries that will set a ceiling price. In his opinion, such restrictions are interference with market instruments, and Russia is ready to work with consumers who are ready to work in market conditions.
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