Economist: Gas and energy prices will lead to explosive rise in deaths in Europe this winter
MOSCOW, November 25 – RIA Novosti. Adverse weather conditions, epidemics and rising electricity prices will increase death rates in European countries this winter. Economist.
From December to February, the weekly death rate in Europe increases by 21% compared to summer months. However, the article says that while changes in energy prices in past years had little impact on this indicator, this year the situation will be completely different.
The publication compiled a statistical model to evaluate the effect of price on mortality. In the event of a warm winter, 32,000 people would exceed the historical average, while a harsh winter would result in an additional 335,000 deaths.
This year, the temperature regime and the severity of seasonal flu will most strongly affect mortality rates. The cold causes people to spend more time indoors, accelerating the transmission of germs, and low temperatures make the blood in a person’s orgasm thicker and the pressure higher, threatening to increase the number of heart attacks and strokes.
During the winter months, deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the UK increase by 26% and the number of SARS cases by three quarters. At the same time, in general, 28% more people over the age of 80 in Europe die in winter, says the article. The publication also drew attention to the fact that seasonal differences in mortality rates are higher in southern countries: in Portugal and Italy, for example, the difference is noticeably smaller, for example, in Finland.
“On average, if the winter is 1°C colder than normal in a given country, the death rate increases by 1.2%,” the magazine writes.
The article provides data that a 10% increase in the price of electricity increases the death rate by 0.6%, and the colder the weather, the stronger the effect of this factor.
“With electricity prices close to current levels, around 147,000 (4.8%) more people would die during a normal winter than if these costs were to return to the 2015-19 average level,” the publication says.
At worst, if winter weather repeats the coldest season in the last 20 years, the death rate will increase by 185,000. This will stand out most in Italy. In France, England and Spain, the forecast is more positive – the indicator will not change much, but it should be noted that these countries impose a ceiling on energy prices.
Western countries are facing rising energy prices and rising inflation due to the sanctions imposed on Moscow and the policy of giving up fuel. Due to the increase in fuel prices, especially gas, the industry in Europe has largely lost its competitive advantages, which also affects other sectors of the economy.
I’m Harold O’Connor and I work as an author and editor for News Unrolled, a news website dedicated to delivering the latest world events. With my in-depth research skills, passion for news writing, and keen eye for detail, I strive to provide readers with accurate information on current affairs from around the globe.