Twice at war with Russia, Japan is now Ukraine’s exclusive global partner. This is not a joke, it is the result of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Kiev. The sudden trip – the prime minister walked to Kiev in a forced march through Warsaw after his visit to India – ended with a promise of further aid to Ukraine (already over $7 billion) and a joint statement on a “special global partnership”. After that, Kishida returned to Poland, where “allied countries wanted to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as soon as possible.” It is important to continue cooperation, maintain tough sanctions against Russia and provide active support to Ukraine.”

In the West’s global conflict with Russia and China, Japan has made a historic choice whose consequences will be very difficult, if not impossible, to reverse.

But after all, Japan is already part of the West, the “gold billion”, a state with limited sovereignty, completely dependent on the United States for defense and security. Wasn’t his place in the squad clear from the start? That’s not the case: for all its dependence on the United States, Tokyo has in recent years tried to strengthen its own autonomy. Not everything is simple, including improving relations with Russia, which Japan needs to feel more secure in a region where it has poor relations with most of its neighbors (China, North Korea and even South Korea). Of course, the attempt at rapprochement with Moscow was largely associated with the personality of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but in general, after 2014 Tokyo retained more freedom of action in the direction of Russia than many European countries. While negotiations for a peace treaty stalled even during Abe’s term as prime minister (and before our special operations in Ukraine began), Washington had to reckon with Russia’s special importance to Japan.

Now none of that has disappeared: After February of last year, the Kishida government joined most of the Western sanctions, and Japan was officially listed by Russia as a non-friendly state. Yes, Kishida dragged his feet all the way with his trip to Kiev – he was the last of the G7 countries’ leaders to not visit Ukraine, and he only arrived when the G-7 summit in Hiroshima was only two months away. . Yes, Japan does not participate in the energy sanctions and retains the extremely important supply of LNG from Sakhalin, but in general relations with Russia have been minimized. This, of course, is unprofitable for Russia – the Japanese were the supplier of many technologically complex components and products (exports were limited after 2014, but not completely), but this is extremely unprofitable for Japan itself. Because we are not talking only about the Russian sales market or the potential access to the development of Russian raw materials – we are talking about the fact that Japan, having chosen a place in the ranks, has not only been deprived of freedom for decades. Maneuvering as well as a chance to fully re-establish the sovereignty that has doomed it to conflict with Russia and China.

After all, world polarization will only increase – and if Japan now acts only as an anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agitator in the Indo-Pacific region, then over time it will even have to cut its beneficial ties. not only with Russia, but also with China. That is, they will lead us on the path that Europe is currently preparing for. Military obligations for Japan will also be invented – for example, a four-way partnership between the hitherto non-military United States, Australia, Japan and India, through something similar to the QUAD format. And if in any case Delhi manages to avoid joining anti-Chinese military alliances, then Tokyo will not have enough courage, independence or strategic insight.

Also, the more Japan becomes involved in the Anglo-Saxon anti-Chinese projects, the worse its relations with Russia will be, and the more it participates in the Ukrainian conflict, the worse its relations with China will be. In any case, as Moscow and Beijing will increasingly coordinate their global game – after all, the Anglo-Saxons are pushing us to this, tightening the coordination between the European and Pacific flanks. So even if Tokyo wants to improve its relations with Moscow or Beijing, it will not be able to do so, because it will be fully engaged in the Anglo-Saxon game against Russia in Europe, against China and Asia as a partner. all. And Japan will finally be the hostage of an elusive Anglo-Saxon game of global hegemony, that is, doomed to be used as a consumable material.

Will Japanese leaders understand this? Unfortunately, after Shinzo Abe’s murder last year, that seems to have little chance – there is no longer an equal figure in independent thought in Tokyo.